mm's Blog

Tory leads in ICM poll and BPIX poll!

A new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph shows support for the Tories at its highest level for 15 years.

Con 43% (+5)
Lab 36% (-2)
Lib Dem 14% (-2) 

'Gordon Brown hit by Tory poll surge':
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/13/npoll413.xml

John Curtice analysis: 'Poll signals a Liberal Democrats collapse'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/13/npoll513.xml

Tory lead in MORI poll!

A new Ipsos MORI poll in this morning's Sun shows the Tories 3 points ahead of Labour.  To be honest I was expecting it to be a lot worse.  Thou I guess we will have to wait for more polls to see the full effects of the shambles of this last week.

Brown rules out autumn election!

So the master strategist has said he will not call a general election this autumn. 

One of the key factors for the decision seems to be this poll in the News of the World by ICM:

'Marginals polls revels Hung Parliament'
http://notw.typepad.com/saturday_notw/2007/10/stop-press.html

As usual Brown does a soft interview with Andrew Marr to explain his decision.  One can only hope there is some short-term pain and in the long term things will be ok.  But one car'nt help feeling that the last three months were the high point of Brown's premiership and Brown could well be the heir to Callaghan in more ways than one.


Is Brown reversing Blair's reforms?

The think-thank Reform has a interesting report setting out how in the 1st month of the Brown era, a reverse gear has been found on the public sector reforms we saw during the Blair era.  Many I guess will welcome this, but as the Reform report point's out the 'inital decisions will impose an upwards pressure on public sector costs'.

Great Political Myths

The Guardian's excellent Parliamentary scketchwriter Simon Hoggart has a new series on great political myths on Radio 4's Westminister Hour.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_westminster_hour/6234940.stm

In the first part he shows that President Bush did not say 'yo Blair' at the G8 in Russia but in fact said 'yeah Blair'.  He also demolishes some myth's about Dennis Healy and Jim Callaghan.  Well worth a listen!

Channel 4 Privatisation

Lot's of news stories about Channel 4, another one today about the upcoming documentary on Diana (yawn!)

This story was in was the Telegraph the other day:

'Brown may take Channel 4 private' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/05/30/nchannel430.xml

What do people think? 

`Stalinist' Brown

Lord Turnbull who was permanent secretary to the Treasury for four years under Gordon Brown before becoming Cabinet Secretary in 2002 has launched a pretty devasting attack on the Chancellor in a FT interview.

Former Whitehall chief slams `Stalinist' Brown
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/db4b60b8-d65c-11db-99b7-000b5df10621.html

I rather liked this line from Lord Turnbull:
"The chancellor has a Macavity quality. He is not there when there is dirty work to be done."

Another line I'm sure Cameron will use at PMQ's or the Budget debate:
The Chancellor has a "very cynical view of mankind and his colleagues".

I'm suprised a former permanent secretary has used such damming language especially before Brown's set-piece occassion.  


Budget 2007

Gordon Brown is presenting his 11th Budget on Wednesday.  What are we hoping that he will deliever?

What has Mr Brown achieved? (Assessment by the BBC's economics editor Evan Davis)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6459543.stm

Gordon Brown: A decade of Budgets
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6442161.stm

The normally well informed Larry Elliott (Guardian Economics editor) basically gives the Budget in this mornings paper:

'Budget to give tax breaks for green homes'
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,,2037235,00.html

So if these various leaks are true will it be enough to pacify Labour members?  Will a so-called 'Green Budget', increases in spending on Education and a possible cut in business corporation tax lead to a surge in the polls?

I just hope the Chancellor has something more up his sleeze on Wednesday afternoon.  He has produced some shocking performances in recent months i.e his conference speech and his pre-Budget report.  Let's hope this blog entry is correct:

Will Budget Day launch Gordon?
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/03/will_budget_day.html


ID Cards an electoral disaster?

With the Tories and Lib Dems fully committed to scrapping ID Cards.  How much will this affect Labour at the polls?  Is it really a plastic poll tax, or do Labour need to start taking on Tory and Lib Dem arguments more robustly?

Charles Clarke is presenting 'The Insider' on C4 (7:30 tonight) which looks at identity fraud/ID Cards/DNA national databases and the national system of medical records verses.

The Insider: fighting identity fraud:
http://www.the2020vision.org.uk/index.php/pages/news-article/the-insider-fighting-identity-fraud/

Defending Democracy, Protecting Civil Liberties:
http://www.the2020vision.org.uk/index.php/pages/speech/defending-democracy-protecting-civil-libertie s/

Tony Blair's repsone to the e-petition against ID Cards:
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/IDcards/

My own view is that Labour have alot of problems with this issue, there seems to be a school of thought that by saying that ID cards can prevent terrorism or illegal immigration it will automatically be accepted.  Do we have faith in the Home Office/Government to manage big IT projects given it's past record?  

Even if some aspects of the ID card scheme may seem sensible it almost seems imposible to get the positive's across to the public.  Is there a case for major u-turn?  Or if the Government is confident of it's case should it be bolder in making the arguments?


Policy Debate

Two former Cabinet Minister's have called for an 'open debate' on the party's future.

'Milburn and Clarke urge debate'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6400167.stm

'Milburn and Clarke e-mail'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6400299.stm

Nick Robinson's view: 'New ideas needed'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2007/02/the_future_for.html

I'm guessing this wo'nt be too popular here?


Your Favourite Prime Minister

The Daily Politics is running a poll to find out which peace-time PM people rate the highest.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/6242715.stm#HOWTOVOTE

Currently Margaret Thatcher is way ahead with 65% of the vote.  Clement Attlee is 2nd with 19% and Tony Blair is 3rd with 7% and Harold Wilson 4th with 4% of the vote.  A fair reflection?  The poll closes in Easter.

The Politics Show has a quiz on Blair on it's website.

So you think you know your Tony Blair?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/6302277.stm

I'm sure as ardent Blairites everybody got 10 out of 10 here.


Brown's Cabinet

A few stories in various papers yesterday and today setting out the likely Brown Cabinet.

Brown summons young courtiers for his Cabinet of all the talents
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2525894,00.html

Philip Webster, the Times Politcal Editor is normally very well informed.


Cabinet minister joins protest over hospital

One see's the party chairwoman has been courting the headlines for the wrong reason's

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/publicservices/story/0,,1979262,00.html

I have to say I find it amazing that she can say with a straight face that she agree's with Government policy as she did on News24.  Should she be sacked?  Or is what she did forgiveable?


Press Review 27/12/06

Antisocial behaviour crackdown a gimmick, say Tories
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/localgovernment/story/0,,1978954,00.html

Thinktank calls for end to national exams for pupils aged 11 and 14
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/publicservices/story/0,,1978775,00.html

Roy Hattersley on the Iraq War:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,1978884,00.html

David Clark (former advisor to Robin Cook) on English and Scottish union:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1978880,00.html

'Come here, Hilary, I've got something to help you win the deputy leadership' (article on Hilary Benn's deputy leadership bid)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2519495,00.html

Killings by strangers rise a third in 10 years:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2519548,00.html

Tragic toll of fights and petty crime that cost lives
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2519645,00.html

Imagination the key weapon in cutting murders
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2519646,00.html

Lethal side of living the good life
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2519647,00.html

Times Leader: Fear of Strangers
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-2519561,00.html

Times Leader: Britain and Basra
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-2519563,00.html


Press Review

Labour 'facing membership crisis':
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6209399.stm

Labour loses one member every 20 minutes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/26/ulab126.xml

Blair plan for 'people's panels':
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6209163.stm
Panel of ordinary people to have a say on policy:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2518698,00.html

Blair to consult with 'people's panels'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/26/upanel126.xml

Obese may be denied priority NHS care:
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article2103722.ece

Bruce Anderson: The real causes of crime lie in the family circumstances, not in poverty or deprivation
http://comment.independent.co.uk/columnists_a_l/bruce_anderson/article2103699.ece

Corner shops must tackle electrical waste:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/26/nwaste26.xml

Legal reforms to hurt high street solicitors
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/26/nlaw26.xml

Sun wins £10m for ChildLine
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006590672,00.html

Reid ordered to build more jails
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006590653,00.html

Sun Leader (praise for Brown and warning for Reid/Brown):
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,31-2006590603,00.html

Hospitals deny Tory A&E Scare:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/tm_headline=hospitals-deny-tory-a-e-scare-%26method=full%26objectid=183 28256%26siteid=94762-name_page.html

Paul Routledge coulum: (blames Blair/Brown for members leaving)
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/paulroutledge/

Mirror Leader (attacks Tony Blair for Labour's membership decline)
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/voiceofthemirror/

Arise Sir Bono - or is that Sir Paul?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=424728&in_page_id=17 70

Cash for peerages drives a wedge through Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=424764&in_page_id=17 70

It's official: tax has vastly increased under new Labour
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=424747&in_page_id=17 70

The ID that follows you beyond the grave
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=424722&in_page_id=17 70

Hospital infections 'kill 10,000 a year'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=424761&in_page_id=17 70


Hunting Act


Brown 'not clear on ideas for reform'

The Times political editor has a piece on Charles Clarke and his views on Labour so-called transition.

Pre-Budget Report

The Chancellor will deliever his 10th PBR on Wednesday, what do people hope he will mention?  It seems that from most of the Sunday papers that the Chancellor will upgrade his economic forecasts and probably mention the 'green agenda'.  A whole series of reports will be published alongside the PBR on local planning and skills.  Will all this be enough to answer the Chancellor's various critics?


Charles Clarke doubts on Trident

The ex-Home Secretary has doubts for the need for a early decison on Trident he said in a speech to the Fabian Society entitled 'The World after Bush':

"There is a strong case for prioritising our security spending on what are likely to be the main security threats we face in the future, rather than building new weapons to fight the last war."

Clarke also discussed a range of issues on the EU in terms of it taking a more proactive foreign and defence policy (e.g the Middle East).  Clarke also discussed issues relating to pre-war planning in Iraq.

The World After Bush- Charles Clarke
http://www.fabian-society.org.uk/press_office/news_latest_all.asp?pressid=578
(full speech or what the press office has put on the website)

Clarke comes out fighting against replacement for Trident - 'a new weapon to fight an old war'
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,1960318,00.html

Clarke accuses Cabinet of rushing decision on Trident replacement
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2026820.ece

Still hoping for a job, if the elephant forgets
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/comment/0,,1960342,00.html
(Micheal White offers his analysis of Clarke's speech and Clarke's future job prospects).


How will Brown react?

An interesting story by the Independent political editor Andrew Grice, about how Gordon Brown's 'new collegiate style' will be tested next week.

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